中国在中美竞争背景下将人工智能定位为国家安全威胁
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中国在中美竞争背景下将人工智能定位为国家安全威胁

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Signals

战略概览

  • 01.
    中国国家安全部部长陈一新发表了一篇官方文章,宣称人工智能是“大国战略竞争的新领域”,并呼吁建立风险防范框架和更强的全球人工智能治理机制。
  • 02.
    中国国家安全部(MSS)还单独警告称,深度伪造技术可能被外国间谍机构用于“认知战”——包括招募人员、诽谤运动和旨在破坏中国稳定的虚假信息行动。
  • 03.
    国家安全部还点名了一个非官方的“中继服务”灰色市场,这些服务允许中国大陆用户访问像 Claude 和 GPT 这样的受限外国模型,并警告存在数据泄露、隐私侵犯和未经授权的跨境数据传输风险。
  • 04.
    在竞争的另一端,美国机构 CISA、NSA 和 FBI 于 2026 年 9 月 8 日发布联合公告,指责总部位于中国的 AI 公司自 2024 年底以来对美国前沿模型进行了“激进、恶意且有针对性的蒸馏”,获取了数十亿个词元,且很可能得到了中国政府的默许。

深度分析

陈一新的国家安全叙事实质上是加强党的控制的借口

当中国最高情报官员称人工智能是“大国战略竞争的新领域”[1]时,表面上的目标是风险防范——但其深层逻辑却指向在国内加强对数据和互联网的党的控制。陈一新将人工智能风险直接与意识形态安全挂钩,将 AI 生成的谣言和虚假信息视为敌对势力可以用来破坏国内稳定的杠杆,从而将更严格的数据和网络管控重新定义为一种防御必要性,而非政治选择[1]。这种思维并非新现象:早在 2023 年,陈一新此前关于数字威胁的文章就已指出中国对外国人工智能和高端芯片的依赖是一种战略脆弱性,远早于人工智能成为如今的头条议题[7]。综合来看,其一贯逻辑清晰可见——外部技术依赖被重构为内部管控问题,而“战略竞争”的安全话语则同时为国内收紧控制提供了正当理由。

北京与华盛顿正在相互镜像对方的指控

剥去外交辞令后,两国政府实际上在向彼此提出几乎相同的指控。中国国家安全部警告称,外国间谍机构可能利用深度伪造技术进行“认知战”——包括招募行动、诽谤运动和旨在破坏国家稳定的虚假信息[2];同时又单独警告称,通过非官方中继服务访问 Claude 和 GPT 等外国 AI 模型存在数据泄露和非法数据交易的风险[3]。与此同时,美国机构则指责中国 AI 公司犯下了镜像式的罪行:通过“激进、恶意且有针对性的蒸馏”系统性地从美国前沿模型中提取数据和能力[4],而此前一份国会报告甚至称 DeepSeek 是“严重威胁”,因其涉嫌将美国用户数据回传至与中国关联的基础设施[6]。每一方都将对方描述为窃取数据和操纵信息的攻击者,而将自己描绘成纯粹的受害者,正在抵御此类行为。

模型蒸馏公告是当前推动政策的具体导火索

与“认知战”或政权安全等更抽象的修辞不同,2026 年 9 月 8 日 CISA、NSA 和 FBI 发布的联合公告点名道姓,并量化了指控:自 2024 年底以来,六家中国 AI 公司——DeepSeek、Moonshot AI、阿里巴巴、MiniMax、StepFun 和 Z.AI——被指控从数百万次与美国前沿模型的交互中提取了数十亿个词元,“很可能得到了中国政府的默许”[5]。正是这种具体性使原本背景性的竞争升级为现实的政策争端,因为它指出了具体企业,使美国官员在讨论追责措施时有了明确事件可依,而非仅仅依赖对战略 AI 差距的模糊担忧[4]

双方内部的怀疑者正在削弱官方叙事

两国政府的叙事在其国内均未被全盘接受。在美国方面,针对强硬提议的网络反应——包括一位前官员建议考虑对中国的数据中心实施军事打击——主要表现为强烈反对,批评者认为这种叙事被夸大其词,并指出相关报告本身从未真正主张轰炸任何目标。围绕模型蒸馏指控本身的怀疑也浮出水面:一篇广受关注的分析质疑“盗窃”一词是否适用,指出 AI 训练方法和硬件相对标准化,因此很难像传统工业间谍活动那样明确界定究竟被“拿走”了什么。在中国方面,网络讨论也做出了类似区分,认为北京对 AI 风险的处理本质上是一个国家控制和审查问题,而非生存性威胁,这与美国更分散、以盈利为导向的监管辩论形成对比。在两个国家,最响亮的官方警告都超前于相当一部分公众和独立评论员愿意全盘接受的程度。

信任赤字威胁着特朗普与习近平峰会前的任何协议

即使两国政府可能希望达成双边 AI 协议,验证机制仍是卡点——分析人士指出,华盛顿和北京都无法确定对方是否会遵守无法独立核实的承诺[8]。这种不信任加剧了美国国内关于是否应放缓前沿 AI 发展的争论:唐纳德·特朗普和迈克·约翰逊等人反对任何美国单方面暂停,认为这实际上等于将 AI 霸权拱手让给中国,其逻辑是,单方面放缓只有在对方真正对等回应时才有意义[9]。在此背景下,双方之间的可信度差距不仅是修辞摩擦——它正是当前相互指责循环与任何可行的 AI 安全或治理安排之间的具体障碍。

历史背景

陈一新早前的一篇文章指出虚假新闻传播和网络安全事件是最紧迫的数字威胁,并将对外国“先进人工智能”和高端芯片的依赖视为战略脆弱性——这是后来专门应用于人工智能的“大国竞争”框架的早期版本。
美国众议院委员会报告将 DeepSeek 称为对国家安全的“严重威胁”,这是美国将中国人工智能视为危险的更广泛叙事中的早期导火索。
国家安全部公开警告深度伪造支持的间谍活动,并引用了一起具体的数据泄露案例,涉及开源 AI 工具和通过外国 IP 地址利用无密码文件访问的漏洞。
国家安全部警告存在一个“蓬勃兴起”的 AI 中继服务灰色市场,允许大陆用户访问像 Claude 和 GPT 这样的受限外国模型,并指出存在数据泄露风险。
美国联合公告点名六家中国 AI 公司,自 2024 年底以来大规模蒸馏美国前沿模型。

关键关系图

关键玩家
主题

中国在中美竞争背景下将人工智能定位为国家安全威胁

CH

Chen Yixin, China's Minister of State Security

Author of the official articles casting AI as a great-power rivalry arena; calls for global AI governance, risk-prevention frameworks, and greater domestic control over data and the internet

CH

China's Ministry of State Security (MSS)

Issues public warnings on AI-enabled deepfakes, cognitive warfare and relay-service data leakage risks tied to foreign AI models

CI

CISA, NSA and FBI (US intelligence and security agencies)

Jointly warned, on September 8, 2026, that Chinese AI firms are distilling US frontier models at industrial scale

CH

Chinese AI firms: DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, Alibaba, MiniMax, StepFun, Z.AI

Named by US agencies as extracting proprietary data and capabilities from US frontier models (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) since late 2024

US

US congressional committee

Branded DeepSeek a "profound threat" to US national security in an April 2025 report, an early flashpoint in the US framing of Chinese AI as dangerous

US

US officials and AI lab leaders debating an AI slowdown

Figures including Donald Trump and Mike Johnson pushed back against proposed AI pauses, framing a slowdown as a strategic gift to China in the AI race

事实来源

9 条引用
  1. [1] China's intelligence chief warns of risks of AI as new arena for strategic rivalry
  2. [2] China warns foreign forces deploy AI deepfakes to stir panic and steal data
  3. [3] Leaks and backdoors: China warns of security risks in relay services for foreign AI models
  4. [4] Intelligence agencies warn of China's large-scale AI model distillation efforts
  5. [5] CISA, NSA, and FBI warn China-based AI companies are targeting US AI models
  6. [6] Chinese AI pioneer DeepSeek branded a 'profound threat' to US national security
  7. [7] Chen Yixin lists China's digital threats
  8. [8] US-China AI negotiations, safety, governance, and the Trump-Xi summit
  9. [9] US-China AI competition

来源文章

Top 5

THE SIGNAL.

Analysts

将人工智能视为可能破坏意识形态安全、关键基础设施和数据安全的大国竞争新领域;呼吁建立“公平开放的国际人工智能规则体系”,同时批评美国的出口管制和“小圈子”科技集团。

Chen Yixin
中国国家安全部部长

即使华盛顿和北京希望达成双边人工智能协议,每一方也可能不信任另一方会履约,因为任何人工智能安全或放缓承诺的合规情况都难以验证。

Unnamed policy analysts (Foreign Policy framing on US-China AI negotiation)
对验证机制持怀疑态度

将 DeepSeek 描绘为秘密将美国用户数据路由至与中国关联的基础设施,并根据中国法律操纵信息,视其为国家安全级别的威胁,而不仅仅是一个商业竞争对手。

US congressional committee (House select committee report)
对 DeepSeek 持对华鹰派观点
The Crowd

What are China's biggest concerns about AI? A new article by Chen Yixin, China's Minister of State Security, in the latest issue of China Cybersecurity Magazine offers some revealing clues. Chen identifies six major risks: 1. Regime security. Hostile forces and people with ulterior motives can use deepfakes, AI-generated text and images, and automated online accounts to cheaply and massively produce political rumors, spread harmful information, and incite social divisions—waging "public-opinion wars" and "cognitive warfare" against China and directly threatening its political, institutional, and ideological security. 2. Critical infrastructure. AI can enable countries and organizations to rapidly discover vulnerabilities, automatically chain together attack paths, and carry out sophisticated hacking operations, dramatically lowering the technical barriers and costs of cyberattacks against China's critical information infrastructure. 3. Data leakage. Foreign intelligence agencies can use AI-powered web crawlers, data mining, and profiling to collect sensitive information, including critical national data, trade secrets, and citizens' personal information. Chinese users who process sensitive information through foreign AI products or export data abroad could also cause large-scale data leaks. 4. Closed technological ecosystems. Countries with advantages in AI theory, model architecture, and computing power may invoke "national security" to impose technology controls, entity lists, monopolize technical standards, and build closed-source ecosystems, restricting other countries' access to advanced technologies and fragmenting global AI supply chains. 5. Structural challenges to social governance. AI creates new uncertainties for social governance and public order. Algorithmic "black boxes" and data poisoning can amplify existing social biases; misuse of personal information can trigger crises of public trust; automated decision-making creates difficult questions of accountability; and the rapid development of AI is increasingly outpacing existing laws, ethics, and regulatory mechanisms. 6. A fundamental transformation of warfare. AI is pushing warfare into an era of "intelligentization." Whoever can use algorithms to achieve more precise sensing, judgment, and targeting will gain the initiative on the battlefield. AI is moving from an auxiliary role to a central one in intelligence fusion, decision support, target identification, combat operations, and cognitive warfare. And what is the solution? Chen's answer is revealing: strengthen "Party control over the internet" and "Party control over data," and "transform the advantages of Party leadership into the effectiveness of AI governance." In other words, from the CCP's perspective, the central question is not simply AI versus no AI. Nor is it even fundamentally a contest between the US and China. It is a contest between the US and the CCP over who gets to control AI, data, information, and ultimately the future of society. And whoever wins that contest will decide the future of humanity.

@@henrysgao560

Very important article from the head of China's Ministry of State Security, laying out China's view of top AI risks. First is social & political risk from AI content. Second, is cyber, citing Mythos.

@@kyleichan598

Palantir CEO Alex Karp: "If we didn't have adversaries, I would be very in favor of pausing this technology completely, but we do." He is absolutely right. China has closed the AI gap with the US. Any American AI slowdown would hand over the AI supremacy to China.

@@DrEliDavid2696

Former Obama Admin Official Says It's Time To Consider Military Strikes on Chinese Data Centers to Prevent Them From Reaching AGI

@u/defenestrate_urself6700
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